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Tyler Cowen Predicts an Imbalanced Economic Future
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Thought for Food
This article originally appeared in The Economist The dismal science has been getting a makeover. Long associated with the abstruse art of mathematical modeling, economics has become the discipline of choice to explain all sorts of phenomena, from human decision-making to the mysteries of the housing market. Economists such as Steven Levitt have been making their fortunes by grappling with real-world problems in books such as “Freakonomics”. Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University with a widely read economics blog called “Marginal Revolution”, joins the crowd with a book on food, now out in paperback. “An Economist Gets Lunch” is really about finding the best places to eat—the economics is little more than a side salad. An adventurous gourmand and keen cook, Mr. Cowen doles out generous portions of advice, some of it counterintuitive. He offers tips for finding good food on the cheap, like the “chili ecstasy” in Albuquerque diners or the fish’n’chips of New Zealand. And he suggests the best way to order at fine restaurants: “If it sounds bad, it probably tastes especially good.” He devotes a whole chapter to the produce at his local Chinese supermarket (there are evidently six varieties of pak choi), and another to the various methods of barbecue cooking, “the greatest slow food of all”. Non-foodies may marvel at Mr. Cowen’s appreciation for detail. The author’s heart, or rather stomach, is in the right place. He has a winning enthusiasm for sampling exotic cuisines and he is critical of the way that Americans, by deferring to their children, have enabled the blandness of much mass-market foods. Eating with kids involves a lot of burgers, fries and doughnuts. He corrects some misconceptions about what it means to eat “green”, arguing that it is far better to cut back on red meat than to dine entirely on locally sourced food—not least because local farmers often drive long distances to bring small amounts of inefficiently raised produce to market. And he urges tourists to seek out the places where locals eat. Street stalls can provide delicious food, especially in places like Singapore. “Food is a product of supply and demand,” he writes, “so try to figure out where the supplies are fresh, the suppliers are creative and the demanders are informed.” Few would argue with Mr. Cowen’s view that while Paris still has some of the finest dining in the world, its cheap food… Read more…
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Average is Over
Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation is Tyler Cowen’s follow-up book to the hotly debated The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick and Will Feel Better. Written in the midst of the global financial and fiscal crisis, The Great Stagnation, outlined the causes of the world wide economic slow-down. Average is Over is the users guide to living and prospering in the age of the Great Stagnation. Unsurprisingly, Cowen who also authored The Age of the Infovore: Succeeding in the Information Economy(2010) continues to see technology or machine intelligence as the driving force behind future economic growth and prosperity. He also warns that those nations and individuals who do not innovate and are not motivated to learn the new ways will be left behind. “I think for a lot of people, upward mobility will be much easier. We’re seeing an enormous amount of global upward mobility that’s quite rapid and quite sudden, and undiscovered individuals have a chance — using the Internet, using computers — to prove themselves very quickly. So I think the mobility story will be a quite complicated one. We’ll have a kind of new meritocracy, but again, it will be a meritocracy, which will be oppressive and perceived as oppressive in some ways due to more rapid measurement and this requirement that the person in some way really prove himself or herself.” Tyler Cowen on Average is Over NPR Morning Edition
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Wealth Taxes: A Future Battleground
This article originally appeared in The New York Times If you’d like to know where American political debates are headed, the data suggest a simple answer. The next major struggle — in economic terms at least — will be over whether taxes on personal wealth should rise — and by how much. The mathematical reality is that wealth is becoming more important, relative to income. In a new paper,“Capital Is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700-2010,”Professors Thomas Piketty and Gabriel Zucman of the Paris School of Economics have performed the heroic task of measuring wealth for eight leading economies: the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and Australia. Their estimates reveal some striking trends. For instance, wealth accumulation in these eight countries has risen relative to yearly production. Wealth-to-income ratios in these nations climbed from a range of 200 to 300 percent in 1970 to a range of 400 to 600 percent in 2010. Behind the changing ratios is some bad news, namely that slow productivity growth and slow population growth have depressed income growth, but also some good news — that relative peace and capital gains have preserved wealth. Focusing on the wealth of economies lets us reframe our recent debates about government debt in useful ways. A look at the ratio of debt to gross national product, for example, can be scary, but the ratio of debt to wealth is far less forbidding. If, say, a nation’s debt-to-G.D.P. ratio is 100 percent — often considered a dangerous level — and national wealth is 10 times yearly national income, the debt-to-wealth ratio is thus 10 percent, which is comparable to owing $100,000 on a $1 million home. Not so scary. Using the wealth numbers provided by Professors Piketty and Zucman, we can understand how Japan, despite a debt-to-G.D.P. ratio of more than 200 percent, can maintain low interest rates; Japan has a wealth-to-income ratio of about 600 percent. In essence, creditors think the Japanese political system will be able to drum up enough support for the requisite taxes, pulled out of national wealth if necessary, when the time comes. But don’t relax too quickly, because fiscal problems remain very real for many countries. While virtually every government could pay off its debts by taxing wealth, such taxes are often politically unacceptable. In other words, fiscal problems are best regarded as problems of dysfunctional governance. In the…
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Tyler Cowen on Stories
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Tyler Cowen on The Great Stagnation
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Tyler Cowen Authors@Google Talk
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Tyler Cowen on Black Swans
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Tyler Cowen on The Great Stagnation
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The Cookbook Theory of Economics