In the News

Never Mind Europe. Worry About India

This article was originally published in The New York Times

The economic slowdown in India is one of the world’s biggest economic stories, but it is commanding only a modicum of attention in the United States.

It may not even look like a slowdown because by developed standards, India’s growth — estimated by the International Monetary Fund at 6.9 percent for 2012 — is still strong. But a slowdown it is: the economy has decelerated from projected rates of more than 8 percent, and negative momentum may bring a further decline. The government reported year-over-year growth in the October-through-December quarter of only 6.1 percent.

What is disturbing is that much of the decline in the growth rate is distributed unevenly, with the greatest burden falling on the poor. If the slower rate continues or worsens, many millions of Indians, for another generation, will fail to rise above extreme penury and want. The problems of the euro zone are a pittance by comparison.

China commands more attention, but Scott B. Sumner, the Bentley College economist, has pointed out it is India that is likely to end up as the world’s largest economy by the next century. China’s population is likely to peak relatively soon while India’s will continue to grow, so under even modestly optimistic projections the Indian economy will be No. 1 in terms of total size.

India also is a potential force for energizing the economies of Bangladesh, Nepal and, perhaps someday, Pakistan and Myanmar. The losses from a poorer India go far beyond the country’s borders; furthermore, the wealthier India becomes, the stronger the allure of democracy in the region.

Why is India’s economic growth slowing? The causes are varied. They include a less than optimal attitude toward foreign business and investment: recall the Indian government’s reversal of its previous willingness to let Wal-Mart enter the retailing sector. The government also has been assessing retroactive taxation on foreign businesses years after incomes are earned and reported. Another problem is the country’s energy infrastructure, which has not geared up to meet industrial demand. Coal mining is dominated by an inefficient state-owned company and there are various price controls on both coal and natural gas. Over all, the country does not seem headed toward further liberalization and market-oriented reforms.

These problems can be solved. More troubling are the causes that have no easy fix.

Agriculture employs about half of India’s work force, for example, yet the agricultural revolution that flourished in the 1970s has slowed. Crop yields remain stubbornly low, transport and water infrastructure is poor, and the legal system is hostile to foreign investment in basic agriculture and to modern agribusiness. Note that the earlier general growth bursts of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were all preceded by significant gains in agricultural productivity.

For all of India’s economic progress, it is hard to find comparable stirrings in Indian agriculture today. It is estimated that half of all Indian children under the age of 5 suffer from malnutrition.

Another worry is that India’s services-based growth spurt may have run much of its course. Call centers, for example, have succeeded by building their own infrastructure and they often function as self-contained, walled minicities. It’s impressive that those achievements have been possible, but these economically segregated islands of higher productivity suggest that success is achieved by separating oneself from the broader Indian economy, not by integrating with it.

India also has one of the world’s most unwieldy legal systems, and one that seems particularly hard to reform. On the World Bank’s Doing Business Index, the country ranks 132 out of 183 listed countries and regions, behind Honduras and the West Bank and Gaza, and just ahead of Nigeria and Syria. One undercurrent of talk is that the days of “the license Raj” have returned, referring to the country’s earlier subpar economic performance under a regime of heavy government regulation.

On the positive side of the ledger, the country retains a population with remarkable talent, energy and entrepreneurship. It has worldwide networks of trade and migration, and world-class achievements in entertainment and design, among numerous other strengths. Nonetheless, the previous pace of progress no longer seems guaranteed.

India may not be alone in this slowdown. There is a more general worry that the grouping of disparate giants known as the BRIC nations — Brazil, Russia, India and China — has, for some reason, lost much of its previous momentum. Last year Brazil grew at only a 2.7 percent rate, down from 7.5 percent, and Chinese and Russian G.D.P. growth are slowing too, to an unknown extent and duration. In the past, many countries engaged in catch-up growth have suddenly slowed and hit plateaus, although economists do not have firmly established theories as to when and why this happened. In any case it remains a real danger.

In the short run, we often focus on headlines, elections and fights between personalities and political parties. But the world is shaped by deeper structural forces, such as resources, technologies, demographics and economic growth rates. We ignore India’s troubling trends at our peril.

Food for Thought from Tyler Cowen

This article was originally published in the Sustainable Business Forum

This month, just for fun, I’m doing to devote most of my writing to food and sustainability. My plan is to write about organic vs. conventional yields, a controversy around Fair Trade, the giant candy company Mars, clean cooking fuels in Mozambique and the goings-on at a pair of upcoming events where I’ll be moderating: the 2012 National Policy Conference of CropLife America, about “The Politics of Food and the 2012 Farm Bill,” and the always-fabulous Cooking for Solutionsextravaganza at the Monterey Bay Aquarium.

Today, though, I want to tell you about a quirky, provocative and enjoyable book called An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies (Dutton, $26.95), by Tyler Cowen.

A free-market economist who teaches at George Mason University, Cowen writes for a broad audience. His blog,MarginalRevolution, is extremely popular. He contributes  to the Sunday NY Times business section. His interests are wide ranging (see this Grantland column on the end of football) and he seems to read every nonfiction book that matters.  His short ebook, The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better, is very smart, and a bargain at $3.99: It argues that what ails the US economy is not merely the aftershocks of the 2008 financial crisis or the distortions caused by the collapse of the dot-com bubble but a more fundamental slowdown in innovation that dates back for 40 years.

In An Economist Gets Lunch, Cowen muses about loosely-connected topics, ranging from how American food got bad (it’s not what you think) to the mysterious differences between Mexican food in El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, its neighbor across the border (US regulators comes into to play) to what happened when he spent a month shopping at an Asian supermarket called Great Wall in Merrifield, VA (he ate healthier, fresher, cheaper foods).

If, like me, you’re interested in the social and environmental impact of the food, you’ll want to read Cowen’s defense of agribusiness, technology and global supply chains. He rejects the argument summed up by the title of the movie Food Inc. that American food is bad for us and bad for the planet because of the commercialization of food. While Cowen is no fan of donuts or McDonald’s, he notes that by the end of the 20th century “more people ate well than ever before” and “the American poor are more likely to be obese than starving.” He writes:

Cheap, quick food–including its embodiment through our sometimes obnoxious agribusiness corporations–is the single most important advance in human history. It is the foundation of modern civilization, and the reason why most of us are alive.

The reasons why American food isn’t very good, he says, have less to do with business than with us, i.e., our government and culture. Prohibition all but killed fine dining because restaurants make more money from liquor than from food. Anti-immigration policies “kept American food away from its best and most fruitful innovators for decades.” Because “Americans spoil and cater to their children,” he argues, we grow up eating food that is “blander, simpler and sweeter” than food elsewhere:

A lot of American food is, quite simply, food for children in a literal sense. it’s just that we all happen to eat it.

Interesting, no?

Efficiency and technology, by contrast, have benefited the environment and the poor as well as the Cargills and ADMs of the world.  Since 1950, “global affluence increased by a factor of 6.99 while global cropland increased by a factor of only 1.32.”  In the US, agriculture feeds many more people today on no more land than was harvested at the beginning of the 20th century. Land is expensive, so farmers will try to use as little of it as possible.

“The net result is an environmental boon,” Cowen writes. “A lot of America has been reforested and this footprint of agribusiness is shrinking rather than rising.”

Because malnutrition remains a bigger problem than obesity, we should welcome innovations that improve agricultural productivity, which has slowed in recent years. Cowen is a fan of GMOs (though he dislikes the name), writing: “It is nature that is cruel and harsh, not commercial engineers and gene splicers and Monsanto.” About that I’m skeptical; there’s scant evidence, so far (Hawaiian papaya aside), that GMOs have helped feed the world, though the potential is there.

On the question of how we can eat our way to a greener planet, Cowen the economist trumps the free-marketer. Rather than worry about what constitutes a Low Carbon Diet, we should adopt a carbon tax so that the prices of food reflect the full cost of growing, shipping and producing it, including the environmental externalities. He writes:

Relying on prices means taxing fossil fuels and it also means higher taxes on meat, which through methane emissions (e.g., cow farts) contribute to climate change.

…Prices are far more powerful than lists of instructions to green-minded consumers.

Carbon pricing could also help us sort through the debate over localism. When it comes to protecting the environment, buying local isn’t necessarily better and it may be worse if you live in a place where lots of water, energy and land are required to grow food. Cowen writes:

The environment is better off if the residents of Albuquerque import most of their food from far away.

It feels greener to buy from the local farmer than to patronize a large, multinational banana company, but perhaps with a dubious political history at that. But there’s nothing especially virtuous about the local farmer, even if it feels good to affiliate him.

As Matt Ridley once said, we’ve tried eating local before. That was called the Middle Ages.

Time Moneyland: Cheap Eats: Surprising Advice on Dining Out — From An Economist

This review of Tyler Cowen’s new book, “An Economist Gets Lunch” appeared in Time Moneyland on May 1, 2012.

Tyler Cowen is an economist who teaches at George Mason University. He has written economics columns for the New York Times, published what the Economist called “the most talked-about economics book of the year” in 2011, and was praised recently by Foreign Policy as one of the world’s “Top 100 Global Thinkers.” The man is obviously quite knowledgeable—when it comes to economics. So what’s he doing giving recommendations for what to eat in the local strip mall?

Food, Cowen would argue, is, in fact, always a matter of economics. We all need food. We make food decisions every day, and every one of these decisions has a monetary connotation, so there’s an economic angle to everything and everywhere we eat.

Cowen’s new book, An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies, is filled with advice on food, and if there’s one overarching theme, it’s that “foodie” should not equate to “snobby.”

Part of the book is excerpted in the May issue of Atlantic Monthly, in a story called “Six Rules for Dining Out.” One of the most curious rules is that when it comes to getting the best value for the dining dollar, foodies should pass on nearly every restaurant located in hip urban neighborhoods. Instead, Cowen recommends heading to restaurants that share parking lots with dollar stores, supermarkets, and liquor stores. What we’re talking about is the scintillating dining destination known as the suburban strip mall.

Cue: record scratch sound.

Cowen’s reasoning is that, compared to restaurants in high-rent districts, strip mall eateries have low overhead, so they can keep menu prices down and experiment with foods and ingredients without constantly having to worry it won’t be able to pay the bills:

A strip-mall restaurant is more likely to try daring ideas than is a restaurant in, say, a large shopping mall. The people with the best, most creative, most innovative cooking ideas are not always the people with the most money. Many of them end up in dumpier locales, where they gradually improve real-estate values.

Hip, high-rent urban neighborhoods tend to attract well-established, upscale restaurants, because only these restaurants can afford the rent. The suburbs and peripheries of cities are where immigrants tend to live—and, not so coincidentally, also where they work and eat. Cowen looks especially for areas where a particular ethnic cuisine dominates the scene. When an area is loaded with a huge selection of, say, Indian or Korean restaurants, the odds are pretty good that any individual restaurant’s food is above average, if not excellent. After all, there is plenty of local competition, and their immigrant clientele is informed and unlikely to be swayed by gimmicks or silly trends. If a restaurant was poor or mediocre, it’d quickly be run out of business.

When hunting for restaurants, Cowen targets ethnic areas with just the right “atmosphere.” When the goal is a magic combination of terrific food at the right price, the signs he looks for are abandoned cars, cheap plastic signs, and five-and-dime stores in the neighborhood. Hey, he’s not saying this is the right atmosphere for a first date, just for good food.

On the other hand, Cowen tends to stay away from restaurants that boast of what most diners would categorize as a good, friendly and fun atmosphere. Specifically, he advises foodies to avoid spots filled with “beautiful, laughing women.” Why? He’s playing the odds that because the place is popular and trendy, the focus is on “the scene” rather than the food, which is all but guaranteed to be overpriced:

The point is not that beautiful women have bad taste in food. Instead, the problem is that they will attract a lot of men to the restaurant, whether or not the place serves excellent food. And that allows the restaurant to cut back on the quality of the food.

Another of Cowen’s unexpected, contrarian insights is highlighted in a USA Today review of his book:

Agribusiness, Cowen says, has made good food ingredients available, along with the drawbacks it has spawned. He uses this analogy: “The printing press brought us both good and bad novels, but was a cultural boon nonetheless.”

Contrary to what some foodies assume, Cowen’s take is that businesses that mass-produce food are not necessarily evil, nor is the food they produce necessarily unhealthy. “There’s nothing especially virtuous about the local farmer,” writes Cowen, and by contrast, “technology and business are a big part of what makes the world gentle and fun.” Overall, he explains, advances in agribusiness have been good for everyone, bringing food prices down and feeding more people than ever in human history.

Columbia Business: Economist Joins ‘Foodies’

This review of Tyler Cowen’s new book, “An Economist Gets Lunch” appeared in Columbia Business on April 30, 2012.

Imagine dining at a Columbia restaurant or shopping at a Columbia grocery store with someone who has a doctorate in ecomonics and is offering a stream of advice.

That sort of approximates the experience of reading “An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.”

Tyler Cowen is a university-based economist obsessed with eating and drinking (obsessed in a good way, once the idea of thinking about food consumption in a new way takes hold). “An Economist Gets Lunch” is a mind-bending book for non-economists. Cowen offers lots of mantras for foodies, and the dominant mantra reads like this: “Food is a product of economic supply and demand, so try to figure out where the supplies are fresh, the suppliers are creative and the demanders are informed.”

In his own life, Cowen uses the mantra to experience excellent food wherever he goes — in the Washington, D.C., area where he resides (he is on the faculty at George Mason University); in his home kitchen; in other locales across the United States; and in nations around the globe.

Challenging tenets

Cowen opens the book with “a journey into the unknown,” the unknown being the nation of Nicaragua and the journey being about finding delicious, affordable meals.

As he travels through Nicaragua, Cowen is consciously upending three tenets of “food snobbery” that have become conventional wisdom:

• The best food is the most expensive.

• The primary source of cheap food, agribusiness, is evil.

• Chefs, food writers, cultural leaders and political officeholders know best; everyday foodies are not a trusted source of innovation.

Good food is often reasonably priced, Cowen says, and the most expensive restaurants are often serving trendy atmosphere for the upper crust of society rather than focusing on the tastiest meals. In his own neighborhood, Cowen has located outstanding restaurants where the meals are priced under $15. “These favorite restaurants serve diverse items, ranging from Sichuan dan dan noodles to French Epoisses cheeseburgers to red salmon curry to Ethiopian raw beef with chilies and dry cottage cheese.” Further from home, “the best barbecue cooks of Texas are highly skilled applied scientists; you can find chili ecstasy in Albuquerque diners and sometimes even in pharmacies; and the region in Italy with the fewest Michelin-starred restaurants — Sicily — has some of the best, most surprising and also cheapest food in Europe.”

A common denominator, Cowen asserts, is “their on-site owners and chefs are devoted to food they love to prepare.”

USA Today: Review: ‘An Economist Gets Lunch’ Offers New Perspectives

This review of Tyler Cowen’s new book, “An Economist Gets Lunch” appeared in USA Today on April 29, 2012.

Every person who wants to stay alive must consume food and drink.

In a sense, that makes everybody an expert on food and drink. But it is the rare consumer of food and drink who swallows with an economist looking on.

Tyler Cowen is an economist obsessed with eating and drinking. Obsessed in a good way, once the idea of thinking about food consumption in a new way takes hold.

An Economist Gets Lunch is a mind-bending book for non-economists. Cowen offers lots of mantras for foodies, the dominant mantra reading like this: “Food is a product of economic supply and demand, so try to figure out where the supplies are fresh, the suppliers are creative, and the demanders are informed.”

In his own life, Cowen uses the mantra to experience excellent food wherever he goes—in the Washington, D.C., area where he is on the faculty at George Mason University; in locales across the United States; and around the globe.

If that sounds somewhat selfish, please know that Cowen is fully aware of the big issues: starvation, daily hunger for many of those not literally starving, obesity, food-related cancers, a lack of food safety, environmental degradation related to food production, corporate farming, greedy agribusiness conglomerates, and more.

He deals with all those issues, especially in the chapters titled “Another Agricultural Revolution, Now” and “Eating Your Way to a Greener Planet.”

Other books may deal more fully and interestingly with the big issues. But Cowen’s book is a thoughtful, offbeat guide to better individual eating for readers with money to prepare food in well-appointed home kitchens, to dine at restaurants near home, and to travel widely away from home while eating experimentally.

Cowen opens with “a journey into the unknown;” the unknown being the nation of Nicaragua and the journey being about finding delicious, affordable meals.

As he travels through Nicaragua, Cowen is consciously upending three tenets of “food snobbery” that have become conventional wisdom:

•The best food is the most expensive.

•Agribusiness, a primary source of cheap food, is evil.

•Chefs, food writers, cultural leaders and political officeholders know best; everyday foodies are not a trusted source of innovation.

Agribusiness, Cowen says, has made good food ingredients available, along with the drawbacks it has spawned. He uses this analogy: “The printing press brought us both good and bad novels, but was a cultural boon nonetheless.”

Good food is often reasonably priced, Cowen says, and the most expensive restaurants are often serving trendy atmosphere rather than focusing on the tastiest meals.

In his own neighborhood, Cowen has found outstanding restaurants where meals are priced under $15.

“These favorite restaurants serve diverse items, ranging from Sichuan dan dan noodles to French Epoisses cheeseburgers to red salmon curry to Ethiopian raw beef with chilies and dry cottage cheese.”

Farther from home, “the best barbecue cooks of Texas are highly skilled applied scientists; you can find chili ecstasy in Albuquerque diners and sometimes even in pharmacies; and the region in Italy with the fewest Michelin-starred restaurants—Sicily—has some of the best, most surprising, and also cheapest food in Europe.”

A common denominator, Cowen asserts: “their on-site owners and chefs are devoted to food they love to prepare.”

For home cooks, Cowen includes well-researched chapters about shopping in ethnic supermarkets and using cookbooks wisely.

Canadian Business Times: An Economist Gets Lunch

This review of Tyler Cowen’s new book, “An Economist Gets Lunch” appeared in Canadian Business Times on April 27, 2012.

Cowen’s latest work of pop economics is a bracing riposte to the locavore likes of Michael Pollan and others who blame commercialization and agribusiness for the miserable state of North American cuisine. While he doesn’t deny that American food has journeyed a “long arch through some big black spots,” Cowen argues it is too simplistic to vilify the industrialization of agriculture. Instead, he blames factors ranging from Prohibition, which forced the closure of some of the best restaurants, to the rise of the two-income household, which popularized the frozen dinner. These forces created “a century-long perfect storm of bad news for good food,” but blaming the agricultural infrastructure is misguided. “The printing press brought us both good and bad novels,” he writes. “but it was a cultural boon nonetheless.” His thesis is well taken, but some of his best insights come when he applies an economist’s methodology to everyday quandaries like choosing a restaurant. He argues that low-rent venues allow restaurateurs to innovate, making them better bets than hot restaurants in pricey locales. Thinking of dining at an ethnic restaurant near a dollar store with an abandoned car out front? “If so, crack a smile, walk through the door, and order,” he says. “Welcome to the glorious world of good food.”

The Washington Post: GMU’s Tyler Cowen: Making NoVa’s Ethnic Cuisine, and Culture, Famous

This review of Tyler Cowen’s new book, “An Economist Gets Lunch” appeared in The Washington Post blog The State of NoVa on April 26, 2012.

Tyler Cowen is both a renowned economics prof at George Mason University (Business Week last year called him “America’s Hottest Economist,”) and a widely-read food blogger, and he combines those passions in his newly published book, “An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.” When the world’s media come to interview Cowen, he takes them to some nondescript ethnic food haunt in Northern Virginia, and explains how his love of Ethio­pian injera or Korean kimchi expanded his understanding of how the world works.

For the last 23 years, even as he traveled and eaten in more than 80 countries to discuss economics, Cowen has always happily returned to what he calls “the magic of Northern Virginia.” For it’s here, Cowen says, that a combination of immigration, quality education, wealth, good business environment and affordable housing leads him to conclude that “Northern Virginia does integration better than any other part of the country, and I’ve been to almost all of them.”

He’s off to Italy and Romania this week, but “I’m always happy to come back here,” Cowen said, as we dined on spicy goat at Bang Ga Nae, a six-table Korean place in a house on Little River Turnpike in Annandale that you really have to know is there. “I always feel rejuvenated by my return.”

Cowen apparently had written about Bang Ga Nae on his ethnic dining blog before, because in the middle of our dinner, a man at the next table came over and asked politely, “Are you Tyler Cowen?” He proceeded to tell Cowen that they were there because of him, they go to all the places he recommends, consider themselves huge fans and his blog is simply amazing. It was like seeing a Beatles fan approach Paul McCartney. Which, in the small world of economist-foodies, I guess makes sense.

Cowen, originally from New Jersey, first landed in Fairfax when he attended GMU as an undergrad in the early 1980s. There was no ethnic food scene here then, and the immigration boom had not visited us. Yet.

But his palate was permanently enlightened after a year spent in Europe during graduate school. After a couple of years teaching in California, Cowen returned to Fairfax in 1989, by which time the ethnic food scene here had begun to take off. He has lived in Tysons Corner, Baileys Crossroads, Vienna and, now, just outside Fairfax City.

“I find that there’s daily enjoyment for me here,” Cowen said, hunting the corridors of Eden Center or the strip malls of Baileys Crossroads for new, fun foreign food.

“The immigrants want to come here and cook for us. They work hard. They pour their lives into this,” he said gesturing at the table full of Korean food, which was unique even in the local Korean community. There were only nine things on the dinner menu in the tiny restaurant. “They have to do some of them very well.”

Cowen’s ethnic restaurant exploration has led him to devise a number of interesting rules and guidelines, such as: Avoid restaurants with beautiful women (the place is likely more focused on its social scene than its food); Don’t avoid strip mall restaurants (they have lower rents, more likely to be adventurous); Order what sounds least appetizing (it’s not designed for mass tastes, but rather for the local immigrants of that culture, probably more interesting).

Cowen feels that a number of factors have combined to make NoVa one of the most intriguing food spots in the country. He said our quality schools have attracted immigrant families, who place a high value on education, but are unwilling to put their kids in private schools. “Ethnic food and education go together,” Cowen said.

He said immigrants could go to Maryland, whose schools are fine, but Cowen said that side of the Potomac feels older, less fresh to him, and probably to new visitors as well. He said Virginia is better for small businesses, which the immigrants intend to open, and has slightly lower taxes.

Ethnic communities also evolve in reasonably close proximity to where their businesses, shops and restaurants are in Northern Virginia, such as Annandale for the Korean community and Baileys Crossroads for the Ethio­pian community. Even when immigrants don’t live near their work, getting there by car or bus isn’t the ordeal that it is in New York or Los Angeles, Cowen said.

And Northern Virginia, through its government contracting, among other things, also has wealth, Cowen said, “with people who are cosmopolitan, well-traveled, willing to take chances.” Their communities are, by and large, not gated enclaves, apart from the rest of the world. “I think immigrants, when they come here,” Cowen said, “feel more accepted than in California. There’s no paranoia here that people are coming in to take over. It’s much more relaxed and healthier. I like living in an area that has arranged that well.”

Though he spent plenty of time in Mexico and loves Mexican food, ”There’s none of it that I enjoy” in NoVa, Cowen said. But we do have good ethnic groceries, particularly the Lotte stores and the Great Wall in Falls Church, he said.

The best food choices in NoVa these days, Cowen said, are the Bolivian food in Arlington and Falls Church; the Ethio­pian along George Mason Drive in Baileys; the Korean food in Annandale; and the Vietnamese food at the Eden Center in Falls Church.

Other helpful guidelines: Pick Vietnamese over Thai food (he says Thai food here is getting too sweet and Americanized); and pick Pakistani over Indian (Indians are also reducing their heat for Americans); look for places with older customers (they’re fussier); avoid places with billiards tables (not serious about food).

Cowen fears the effects of gentrification, which tends to drive up real estate rates and drive out ethnic restaurants. It can also lead to blander food. But if defense funding is cut, and the impact is felt locally, that would be a good thing for ethnic restaurants, if not for the populace in general, Cowen said.

And finally, some more helpful tips for ethnic restaurant exploration: ”It’s all about the ordering,” Cowen said. The best places have smaller menus, so they aren’t trying to please everyone, and likely do several things very well. Don’t ask the waiter what’s good, “that will only confuse them.” Instead, ask, “What dish do you have here which is special?” or “What are your regional specialties.”

Don’t be afraid to ask questions about what’s arriving, pointing if necessary, and don’t be afraid to check out what others are already eating. Ask these questions — and stay away from the beautiful people — and you’ll have a great time, Cowen assures.

New York Times: Democracy Is Having Its Say

Tyler Cowenwrote this column for The New York Times’ Room for Debate on April 23, 2012.

Today, very few countries in the euro zone are capable of making credible commitments or binding agreements with the others.

Quite simply, democracy is having its say. The French soon may elect a left-wing candidate who, in essence, wants to exempt France from fiscal rules and place more fiscal risk on Germany. The Dutch can no longer form a governmental consensus on the budget. The Irish will be putting the fiscal compact up for a referendum, and the Greeks are holding an election in May. Even in Germany there could be problems holding together the ruling coalition.

In general, voters are unwilling to give up their say over policy, or to regard the European Union or euro zone as necessarily superior to national interests. When it comes to the specifics, it appears increasingly likely that at least one national electorate will pull the plug on the entire set of bailouts and austerity programs.

There is no way to pull off the required cross-national agreements. Resources are being drained from euro zone banks, which are contracting their lending to business. This will make the current recession worse, which in turn will necessitate further unpopular policies, including cuts in government spending. Euro zone countries will become more nationalistic in hard times, and more likely to vote against incumbent governments, no matter what the specific issue at stake. It is hard to see a stabilizing outcome, so the best bet is on a crack-up of some of Europe’s major economies, including Spain and Italy.

There is an old saying in economics, namely “no monetary union without a corresponding fiscal union.” It could be added “no fiscal union without a corresponding electoral union.” In the longer run, we will probably end up with none of these institutions.

The euro zone probably was unworkable from the beginning, and now we are seeing why.

New York Post: You are where you eat

This review of Tyler Cowen’s new book, “An Economist Gets Lunch” appeared in the New York Post on April 21, 2012.

Don’t eat at a restaurant packed with beautiful women. Any Chinese place, even at the most woebegone formica joint in the dullest small-town strip mall, can be a good one if you know what to say. And get to a barbecue place early — before noon.

So says Tyler Cowen in his smorgasbord “An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies” (Dutton). The vague title provides cover for the wide range of food issues Cowen considers, all the way from why American food got so bad to why hundreds of millions of Indians are starving to why locavorism usually makes no sense. Just think of it as another contrarian ideas party; “Freakonomics” for food.

Cowen’s special sauce is rationality, which is why this may be the first food book I have ever made it through. (I nearly threw Anthony Bourdain’s macho-man pose-a-palooza “Kitchen Confidential” into the fireplace after 20 pages). Eating, especially in restaurants, is a subject that opens into a lot of other fields. There’s location, trendiness, class, alcohol, decor, socializing and even the beauty of your servers and fellow diners to distract you.

All of these are factors in why food writing is so bad: There are so many other things to consider that the restaurant critic often doesn’t get around to the food until the second half of the review. When I pointed this out to one such writer, he sighed heavily and said, “Yes, but how many ways are there to say ‘crunchy’?”

EATING OUT — FAR OUT

Cowen is an economist at George Mason University who is widely admired in the field for his influential Marginal Revolutions blog and also runs a food blog (Tyler Cowen’s Ethnic Dining Guide, whose motto is “all food is ethnic food”). He gets around the food-writing problem by taking it for granted that you’ll agree with him on what makes a great-tasting meal.

The meal is all that matters to him. He doesn’t care if it’s served in a hut by the side of the road or if you have to sit on a picnic bench to eat it. He’s willing to for a fantastic dish, but he doesn’t pretend food is better just because it cost more. Some of the best meals (not just for the buck, but best meals period) can come from food trucks operated by struggling immigrants.

Consider barbecue: The best examples of it, Cowen believes, are to be found at places on the outskirts of towns in Texas or at roadside stands in Mexico. Why roadside? Genuine barbecue requires slow roasting at low temperatures in a pit. Even in Mexico, government regulators are nervous about potentially out-of-control fires and fumes bothering or endangering neighbors. Roadside stands outside of town don’t have to worry about neighbors. Moreover, rural Mexican police are easily bribed.

If you care about decor, you’re probably not going to be exposed to much great barbecue. (On his foodie blog, Cowen says that what might be the best barbecue on the entire East Coast is to be found in Queens, at the modest John Brown’s Smokehouse in Long Island City). The best barbecue is cooked overnight, and when it’s ready, you should eat it as soon as possible. That means, perhaps, as early as 7 a.m. Great barbecue places like the ones in Mexico and Texas run out of supply as the day goes on, and when the meat is gone they simply close. (Beware of bigger, more commercial places that never run out, as in North Carolina. That means the meat is likely to have been frozen.)

The short business day means it isn’t wise to invest in the look of your place. An exception: Manhattan’s Blue Smoke in the Flatiron District. It charges premium prices that in part reflect the regulatory burdens of operating a barbecue pit in an urban area and also relies on its customers to spend a lot for drinks, which in my experience they are delighted to do.

Some of the same reasons — quality family-made food, of limited profitability, made under limited regulation — are why food carts serve up many of Cowen’s favorite meals. Washington, DC, he notes, is forever threatening to put food carts out of business, urged on by heavy lobbying from restaurants, though there is one area (in Adams Morgan at Columbia and 18th streets) where trucks serve first-rate Central American and Puerto Rican dishes.

Austin, Texas, Portland, Ore., and New York are much more accommodating to food trucks, and with delicious results. As more cities continue down this path, “the next food revolution in the United States is likely to be a mobile one,” he predicts. And thanks to social-media sites like Twitter, it’s easier than ever to track your favorite vendors.

COOL IS NOT HOT

The overall vibe of a restaurant (the aspect of the experience that takes up, say, two-thirds of a standard restaurant review in The New Yorker) is, for Cowen, an irrelevant distraction. You will search his writing in vain for the tiresome snark about how a restaurant is bad because it attracts power-tie-wearing bankers or those supposedly awful bridge-and-tunnel people New York nightlife writers are so obsessed with denigrating.

Yet the vibe can be a useful counter-indicator. When you see a restaurant that’s full of happy, smiling, chatty people, run the other way. Why? “Don’t get me wrong,” he writes, “There is nothing wrong with having fun, but it’s not the same thing as good food. So many restaurants ‘get by’ — and charge reasonably high prices — by creating social scenes for drinking, dating and carousing. They’re not using the food to draw in their customers . . . They will serve some kind of overpriced fusion cuisine, sponsored by a famous or semi-famous chef who is usually absent from the premises . . . The famous chef, or some competent delegate, will be on hand early in history of the restaurant to make sure it gets good reviews from sophisticated food critics and smart food bloggers. Then everyone will want to go there and the place will become established as a major social scene. The laughing and the smiling will set in. Beware! That’s when you need to stop going.”

A restaurant that attracts beautiful women will attract so many men to look at the women that the restaurant will be able to increase profits by cutting back on the quality of the food.

By contrast, at a really great restaurant, people may look miserable. Cowen suggests putting a mirror in front of you when you’re eating a great meal. Do you look happy and sociable? Probably not. Cowen loves Chinese restaurants where you see diners “screaming at each other and . . . fighting and pursuing blood feuds.” That means the customers go there a lot, because people don’t have arguments at restaurants that are unfamiliar to them.

Even in one of those spooky Chinese joints that always seems empty — possibly because it uses frozen meat and canned vegetables — you can get a better-than-decent meal if you ask to speak to the cook and try to get across the idea (which may be difficult as he may not speak English) that you want a genuine meal. Say “Ma Pa tofu, like you eat it, Sichuan, family style.” Tofu, unlike meat, won’t be ruined by being refrigerated for a long time.

Cowen says a rule that has never failed him is: Eat at a Thai restaurant that is attached to a motel. As Thai food became trendy in the 1980s — it looks healthy, it contains beautiful bright colors, it’s more exotic than Chinese — it spiralled downward in quality, with sauces becoming overly sweet. As hip people started to go to Thai restaurants, these places started to have lively bar scenes (meaning they could make a lot of profits on drinks, so the quality of the food didn’t matter much) and to feature sushi (a sure sign of diluted interest in the main menu).

Thai food is really complicated to make because the sauces are so labor-intensive, though, which leads to mass-produced food that isn’t fresh. What you want is a family-run place that doesn’t have to cover high rents by selling en masse. If a Thai restaurant is attached to a motel, it means the same hard-working family is probably running both of them, and the food part is a labor of love that will serve up pretty authentic cuisine at reasonable prices.

Another contrarian idea for Asian food? Seek out Pakistani places. Indian restaurants became so popular (in part because Indian summons up pleasant images of beautiful saris, Gandhi and the Beatles) that their offerings became homogenized and bland. Pakistani restaurants, by contrast, still have to try hard. Anyone who is from a country associated with harboring Osama bin Laden wouldn’t be able to stay in business if she served up so-so food.

Pakistani restaurants tend to use fresh ingredients and make you wait 20 minutes for just-baked bread. If a Pakistani place has lots of Islam-themed decorations on the wall, that’s another plus: Anything that is likely to drive away the mainstream slobs means a greater likelihood of authentically excellent cooking.

ASK A CABBY

When searching out a place to eat, Yelp and similar sites can be helpful, but such places tend to attract cranks, which is why Cowen tends to discount the negative reviews. What he’s interested in is how the positive reviews are written — are they richly detailed, do they talk about the food rather than the hipness factor, are they impassioned? If so, the place is probably worth a try.

And it’s smart to ask a cab driver for recommendations, especially if you’re in an unfamiliar place. Cowen relies on cabbies especially when he’s in a place like Nicaragua, where the best, most interesting local dishes (as opposed to the places most cunningly designed to ensnare rich visitors) aren’t easily found. “If you ask someone for a restaurant tip, and their eyes don’t light up with excitement, ignore them,” he advises.

If you Google a restaurant, use a specific search term “Best restaurants Washington” will yield far too much information to be useful, as well as reams of bad advice. But “Best Indian restaurants Washington” will yield up more finely attuned advice, and even if you don’t want Indian food you can follow the informed-sounding sources to find their non-Indian picks. Even a search term as wacky as “best cauliflower dish Washington” will serve the purpose of separating yourself from the Google masses.

Real foodies think about more than just what’s on the plate, though, and so does Cowen in his wide-ranging book. He takes a quick tour through the history of American food politics in a sketch that explains how our food got so bad.

The supremely misguided attempt to attack alcohol, for instance, drove many excellent restaurants out of business, since a lot of them can’t make a profit without selling drinks. Prohibition was just a part of the story; Kansas was dry as early as 1881. And when Prohibition ended, in 1933, economic conditions meant opening a restaurant was dicey.

Moreover, Prohibition led to many more family restaurants, which in turn meant adjustment of menus to suit kids’ unadventurous palates. And many state and local laws continued to restrict alcohol for decades. In Texas, restaurants didn’t serve alcohol until 1971. Many counties still have dry laws.

Prohibition was followed by WWII, which meant a boom in mass-produced shelf-stable food, and WWII was followed by the boom in TV, which sparked a demand for quick TV dinners taking the place of multi-course meals. Many Swanson meals were developed by bacteriologists rather than chefs, the main concern being to avoid poisoning the customer. Hence the taste.

That kind of unexpected detail makes the book a kind of secret history of dining. Food gets demystified quickly when you look at it in economic terms.

As Cowen sums up: Food is a product of supply and demand, so try to figure out where the supplies are fresh, the suppliers are creative and the demanders are informed.

Good eats

Some of Tyler Cowen’s contrarian tips for excellent eating:

* At a fancy restaurant: Ask the waiter, “What is the best?” If he hesitates, or says it’s all equally good, be wary. Also: Order the least-appetizing- sounding item. An item won’t be on the menu unless there is a good reason for it to be there. Order the ugly and order the unknown.

* Eat at restaurants on side streets, not on high-rent boulevards and avenues, unless money is no object. Higher rents mean higher prices. Restaurants need high turnover to earn a profit, and quirky ethnic places (unlike chains or theme restaurants that cater to people with questionable taste) can’t survive. In New York City, underpriced locales like the far West Side of Manhattan and Flushing, Queens, are rich with interesting choices.

* Seek out nabes with lots of restaurants. More restaurants means more competition, which keeps standards high. Plus a dense concentration means a better supplier base.

* Barbecue is best in towns of under 50,000, and even then on the outskirts of them. Because pit barbecuing can be hazardous, and difficult to scale up in large quantities, the best places are in low-rent, low-regulation settings.

* Japan is not a low-wage country so its immigrants aren’t poor. And quality depends heavily on ingredients, not in howmeals are prepared. So Japanese dining, unlike other kinds, is pretty much just a question of how much you’rewilling to pay.

* Chinese food is meant to be flash-cooked over high heat, not simmered. So never eat at a Chinese buffet.

* If a Thai place is attached toamotel, it’s probably really good. That means it’s a small, family-run operation.

* Try a Pakistani place. India makes people think of saris and the Beatles. Indian food has lost quality control since it became popular. But nobody loves Pakistan, so its chefs have to try harder. Especially seek out ones with an Islam-themed decor.